The blue wave was always a myth. The facts on the ground never indicated anything more than a slight shift in power in Washington. This narrative was nothing more than media propaganda of the highest order. I've been suspicious of the blue wave narrative for a couple of months now. An energized minority of enraged Democrat activist don't represent a majority of American opinion.
According to an NBC report on voter registration in key districts, there doesn't appear to be a blue wave. The Democrat coalition consists of city dwellers who live in small pockets of major metropolitan areas. There isn't anything wrong with that, but you can't build a nationwide movement around this type of strategy.
The basic fact is most people that make up the ideal Democrat coalition don't vote in midterm elections. Young people the poor and minorities historically don't show up in big numbers for midterm elections.
It's worth noting that the party in power during the first midterm after winning the White House does historically lose seats in the Congress. This is due to an energized opposition or pushback from a prior election. This could hold true in some respect but will be blunted by other mitigating factors like the economy, Kavanaugh and possibly the migrant caravan.
There is no doubt that Democrats handling of the Kavanaugh hearing hurt them and probably turned the tide on any real midterm momentum from the left. This historic economy is sure to play a role in this election also. The biggest factor working against the Democrats at this point is their reliance on overzealous activism. Viral videos of activist on the left confronting Republican politicians across the country has been a net negative. There is palpable anger coming from the left. In this anger is a whiff of desperation. Get Trump and his supporters at all cost. The ends justify the means.
The big elephant in the room by far is the Honduran caravan story. Whether or not that's on anybody's radar, this has the potential to be a huge determining factor in which way voters will cast their ballots. We can't forget why Trump was elected. I don't know what the Democrats think of this from a midterm election perspective, but I would be surprised to see polling in favor of these migrants invading our county.
What makes this caravan story so compelling is it illustrates better than anything we've seen so far how broken our immigration laws are.
This would hurt Democrats running in moderate house district because they'd be forced to go defend or denounce this. This is sure to split the base on the Democrat side as well. Republicans by in large support a secure border but the Democrat caucus is divided between open and closed border activist. The Democrat party is the party advocating dissolving ICE. An agency tasked with fighting illegal immigration.
If the media thinks the pictures of roads filled with people marching north toward America is a win for Democrats they're mistaken. A majority of Americans aren't for this type of immigration, and some are frightened by it.
Organizers for the caravan are vowing to be here by election day, and that would spell doom to the Democratic parties chances in the midterms.
This is why I believe the blue wave is a myth. Republicans will win a few seats in the Senate and maintain a smaller majority in the House of Representatives.